Headline:  Don't make Saddam mad, make him lonely
Byline:  Nicholas Blanford Special to The Christian Science Monitor
Date: 09/12/2002

(BEIRUT)Chibli Mallat has a plan. Concerned that ousting Saddam Hussein by
force could actually lead to the use of weapons of mass destruction,
this Lebanese international law professor is one of the driving forces
behind an initiative that hopes to halt the current US-led move toward
armed conflict.

The plan, dubbed "Democratic Iraq," aims to isolate the apparatus of
Mr. Hussein's regime by promoting Iraqi opposition leaders, relaxing
sanctions that hurt Iraqi citizens but not the regime leadership,
cutting off transportation routes for the country's military and
intelligence, and pursuing Hussein's indictment for war crimes. Backed
by a senior UN official, a European ambassador to the UN, a leading
member of the Iraqi opposition, and human rights activists, the plan
supports the use of force - but to hurt, not to depose, the Iraqi
leader.

"Everyone is horrified at the thought of weapons of mass destruction
being used," Mr. Mallat says. "The Democratic Iraq initiative would
deflect a doomsday scenario which extremists in the area are hoping
will develop."

On Thursday, President Bush is scheduled to address the United Nations
to press Washington's case for toppling Hussein. But a full-scale
US-led assault against Iraq raises the possibility that Hussein might,
in a final desperate act of defiance, unleash his arsenal of chemical
and biological weapons - possibly against Israel. Israel, which is
thought to possess in excess of 200 nuclear missiles, has said that if
attacked, it will respond in kind.

"As the war develops, the logic of Saddam using [weapons of mass
destruction] is obvious," says Mallat, who has been involved in the
campaign to indict Hussein, and is also one of three lawyers seeking to
prosecute Israeli Prime Minister Ariel Sharon for his role in the
massacre of Palestinians and Lebanese in Beirut in 1982. "It's humanly
unacceptable to have them used either on Israelis or on Iraqis."

Democratic Iraq has already attracted the attention of officials in
Washington, the UN, and Europe - as well as among the Iraqi opposition.
The initiative aims to create international consensus on the best way
to encourage regime change in Baghdad - means amenable to both the
international community and the Iraqi people.

"The emphasis is on an effective distinction between Saddam and
Iraqis," says a memorandum detailing the plan. "Any use of force is ...
to introduce effective mechanisms for accountability and democracy in
the country and to minimize the risk of weapons of mass destruction use
by the current government."

The plan does call for continuing threats of military force against
Baghdad. At the same time, it would give leading Iraqi opposition
figures the diplomatic exposure necessary to build their credibility as
potential leaders in the pre- and post-Hussein period.

It would also relax UN sanctions that affect ordinary Iraqis, while
tightening restrictions on the regime's leadership. And it would seek
to further isolate that leadership through war crimes indictments.

"If you indict [Deputy Prime Minister] Tariq Aziz, for instance ... it
would make it much more difficult for Arab countries to deal with
them," says Salem Shalabi, an Iraqi lawyer in London. "It delegitimizes
[Hussein] and effectively prohibits his ability to maneuver
internationally."

The initiative would also transform current No Fly Zones in northern
and southern Iraq, which cover about two-thirds of the country, into No
Drive Zones - denying access not only to the Iraqi Air Force but also
to the Army and intelligence services.

Further, it would establish a third No Drive Zone, linking the northern
and southern zones, in the Western Desert along the Syrian border.

A UN Security Council resolution would authorize the No Drive Zones -
and the use of force, by Special Forces troops with air support, to
protect them.

Weapons inspectors and human rights monitors would also be deployed in
the zones to assist the local leadership in maintaining order. Mallat
says their deployment is key to the plan's success. "They would monitor
and prevent uncontrolled acts of revenge and ensure that international
standards are the measure of any emerging forces," he says.

A leading Iraqi opposition leader confirmed to the Monitor his backing
for Democratic Iraq, and said that he had already approached the Bush
administration to win support for the deployment of human rights
monitors in Iraq.

It is likely to be a tough sell, however. The administration has
clearly stated its preference for regime change by force.

Juan Cole, professor of history at the University of Michigan in Ann
Arbor, argues that the "more influential hawks" in the Bush
administration are closely linked to Israel's Likud Party, "and they
wish to remove Saddam because he is the only credible military rival to
Israel in the region. I do not believe that the Democratic Iraq
initiative will be acceptable in Washington, because it is premised on
the good faith of the Bush administration's stated reason for concern,"
he says.

Nonetheless, the lack of international support for an attack on Iraq
appears to have spurred President Bush to grant the UN a last chance to
mediate a more peaceful alternative.

The 'Democratic Iraq' initiative

* Continue military buildup - and talk of democratic change in Iraq,
not of deposing Saddam Hussein.

* Increase public exposure to democratic credentials of Iraqi
opposition leaders.

* Relax UN sanctions affecting the Iraqi people. Tighten those
affecting the Iraqi regime.

* Transform existing No Fly Zones in northern and southern Iraq into No
Drive Zones, to deny access to Iraqi military and intelligence. Create
a third No Drive Zone in the Western Desert.

* Enforce respect for No Drive Zones through deployment of Special
Forces backed by air support. Deploy weapons inspectors and human
rights monitors.

* Indict Saddam Hussein for war crimes.